解开能源政策制定的建模过程.
Samuele Lo Piano1, Máté János Lőrincz1, Arnald Puy2
1School of the Built Environment, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, UK.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|November 14, 2023
概括
能源系统建模可以通过创造虚假的确定性来限制政策选择. 这项研究建议使用诸如数值单位差值评估标准 (NUSAP) 等质量评估方法,以确保更强大,更包容的能源研究.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 政策建模 政策建模
- 科学不确定性 科学不确定性
背景情况:
- 能源系统模型对于政策决策至关重要,但可以过度简化复杂的系统.
- 历史上的例子,比如国际应用系统分析研究所 (IIASA) 在20世纪80年代的全球建模,表明模型如何过度缩小政策选择.
- 对模型输出的感知过度确定性可能会阻止探索各种政策途径.
研究的目的:
- 探索能源系统建模如何导致政策替代方案的过早关闭.
- 介绍和说明质量评估方法,以提高模型的反射性和稳定性.
- 鼓励采用这些实践,使能源研究更具防御性和包容性.
主要方法:
- 国际应用系统分析研究所 (IIASA) 全球建模的回顾性案例研究分析.
- 质量评估技术的讨论:数值单位差值评估 (NUSAP),诊断图和灵敏度审计 (SAUD).
- 在三个当代案例中,反射建模的说明性应用:英国能源政策 (ESME),综合评估模型 (IAM) 中的负排放技术 (NET) 和生态足迹指标.
主要成果:
- 建模可以创造一种"过度确定性",限制考虑其他政策选择.
- 数值单位差值评估 (NUSAP),诊断图和灵敏度审计 (SAUD) 提供了评估和改善模型质量的实用方法.
- 反射式建模实践,当应用时,显示出更细微和更全面的政策分析的潜力.
结论:
- 建模人员应该积极使用质量评估工具,以减轻过度确定性和有限的政策选择的风险.
- 采用NUSAP,诊断图和灵敏度审计可以导致更强大的,可防御的和包容的能源建模.
- 加强模型的透明度和反射性对于有效的能源政策制定和研究至关重要.
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