从周期数据绘制队列概况的危险:一个研究笔记
Alyson A van Raalte1,2, Ugofilippo Basellini1, Carlo Giovanni Camarda3
1Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
Demography
|November 15, 2023
概括
从年龄段数据对角线计算时,人口统计指标因时间和队列大小偏差的人工波动. 这些偏见可能导致不合理的死亡率预测,即使有详细的数据.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 人口研究 人口研究
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 队列概况和预测通常来自人口学中的年龄周期数据网格.
- 现有的方法可能会在人口统计指标中引入人为波动.
研究的目的:
- 为了证明从年龄段数据对角线中得出的人口统计指标的人造波动.
- 量化时间和队列大小偏差的大小.
- 用李-卡特模型来说明不合理的死亡率预测间隔的潜力.
主要方法:
- 从年龄阶段率格的对角线计算的人口统计指标的分析.
- 偏差大小的估计. 偏差大小的估计.
- 将李卡特方法应用于年龄段数据,以预测死亡率.
主要成果:
- 人口统计指标由于时间和队列大小偏差而表现出人为波动.
- 这些偏差很大,即使使用单个年龄,单个年龄的数据,也会影响措施.
- 对队列死亡率指标的预测间隔可能变得不合理.
结论:
- 在年龄周期网格中的数据操纵可能会导致队列测量中的偏差.
- 过度解释受这些偏见影响的趋势是一个重大风险.
- 仔细考虑数据导出方法对于准确的人口分析和预测至关重要.
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