在2081-2100年未来气候情景下,地下水风险的每月变化
Binggan Wei1, Shuhui Yin2,3, Jiangping Yu3
1Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11 A Datun Road, Beijing, 100101, China. weibg@igsnrr.ac.cn.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|November 15, 2023
概括
地下水的含量因季节性变化而波动,对健康构成风险. 未来的气候变化可能会改变高概率,特别是影响饮用水安全.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文地质学 水文地质学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 浅层地下水中的季节性变化已得到充分证实.
- 了解每月的变化和气候变化下的暴露风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用随机森林模型模拟Hetao盆地每月高地下水的概率.
- 调查气候情景对分布和暴露风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 用566个地下水样本进行的度分析.
- 将土壤特性,气候,地形和地形数据纳入随机森林模型.
- 在不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下模拟的每月的概率.
主要成果:
- 高的概率在雨季开始时达到顶峰,随着降水和温度的下降而下降,然后在雨季后上升.
- 在SSP126下,高概率增加的地区与现有的高区在很大程度上重叠.
- 在SSP585下,高的概率和暴露风险一般降低,但转移到以前低的地区.
结论:
- 在未来的气候情景下,地下水暴露仍然是人类健康的重大威胁.
- 气候变化影响了高含量地下水的空间分布和概率.
- 持续监测和风险评估对于提供安全饮用水至关重要.
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