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预测未来的明星:精英游泳者的概率和表现走廊
Dennis-Peter Born1, Thomas Stöggl2, Jenny Lorentzen3
1Swiss Swimming Federation, Section for High-Performance Sports, Switzerland; Swiss Federal Institute of Sport Magglingen, Department for Elite Sport, Switzerland.
Journal of science and medicine in sport
|November 15, 2023
概括
女性游泳者需要比男性更早地达到更高的相对速度. 对于女性来说,表现水平较早出现,这会影响运动员的长期发展和世界青少年锦标赛.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 绩效分析 绩效分析
- 游泳分析 游泳分析
背景情况:
- 世界青少年游泳锦标赛有新的年龄组.
- 评估这些年龄组需要科学基准和绩效走廊.
- 预测在最高表现年龄取得成功对于人才发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了科学评估新的世界青少年锦标赛年龄组.
- 建立绩效基准和走廊来预测成功.
- 将两性之间的性能走廊和比赛距离 (自由式) 进行比较.
主要方法:
- 对347,186个年度最佳时间 (男性和女性游泳者) 的纵向大数据分析.
- 使用累积普森分布来计算实现不同游泳者级别的概率.
- 性能走廊与世界纪录相对分析,使用双向ANOVA.
主要成果:
- 女性在较年轻的年龄需要更快的相对时间,在国家/国际层面上比男性更早地达到平原.
- 世界一流的长途游泳者比短途游泳者更早获得更高的分数.
- 这种性别特异性差异在女性中更加明显.
结论:
- 新世界青少年锦标赛年龄段对于基于性别特定的表现走廊的长期运动员发展是有问题的.
- 来自131个国家的数据的基准提供了有效的国际标准.
- 这些规范预测了高峰时代的成功,并指导了年轻游泳者的天赋道路.
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