美国西南部的气候变化和生态系统变化
Grant M Harris1, Steven E Sesnie2, David R Stewart2
1United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Albuquerque, NM, USA. grant_harris@fws.gov.
Scientific reports
|November 15, 2023
概括
气候变化正在改变生态系统,预计到本世纪中叶,适宜性将在面积和海拔上升. 土地管理者需要这些数据来应对跨司法管辖区的广泛生态系统转移.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 气候变化是生态系统不稳定和转变的主要驱动因素.
- 土地管理机构需要可操作的数据,以减轻气候变化对生态系统的影响.
- 了解历史生态系统分布和非生物因素对于预测未来变化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种预测模型,用于美国西南部由气候变化驱动的生态系统转变.
- 识别生态系统位置和非生物数据之间的历史关系,以定义生态系统适应性.
- 在不同的气候变化场景和排放途径下预测未来的生态系统适应性.
主要方法:
- 利用集体机器学习模型分析历史生态系统位置 (约2000年) 和非生物数据 (1970-2000年).
- 使用CMIP6气候模型 (BCC-CSM2-MR,GFDL-ESM4) 和排放场景 (SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5) 预测到世纪中期和世纪末期的历史关系.
- 整合了9个气候模型来量化预测不确定性,并在各种土地属性中绘制了适宜性预测.
主要成果:
- 预计到本世纪中叶,生态系统适应性将在面积 (~50%),海拔 (12-15%) 和北方 (4-6%) 上升.
- 所有分析的土地属性 (≥16.7平方公里) 在适合至少一个生态系统方面都显示出显著的变化.
- 在联邦,州和部落土地上,无论财产规模如何,都观察到生态系统适应性的显著变化.
结论:
- 气候变化需要积极的生态系统管理策略,超越司法管辖区的边界.
- 有效地缓解生态系统转变需要土地管理机构之间的协调,集体行动.
- 开发的程序为明智的生态系统管理决策提供了必要的气候背景.
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