风险因素和预测模型用于儿童早期复发性肠静脉受精:一个回顾性队列研究
Min Yang1, Yao Xie2, Yangmu Zhuang1
1Department of Pediatric Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China.
Translational pediatrics
|November 16, 2023
概括
一岁以上儿童的单细胞比率较高,但没有吐或血便,面临更高的风险早期复发性肠. 这项研究确定了关键的风险因素,并开发了儿童ERI的预测模型.
科学领域:
- 儿科胃肠病学 儿科胃肠病学
- 临床风险预测预测
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 早期复发性静脉吸收 (ERI) 显著影响儿童的健康.
- 有限的研究存在于确定儿童群体中ERI的风险因素.
- 这项研究解决了对更好地理解和预测ERI的需求.
研究的目的:
- 确定与儿童ERI相关的独立风险因素.
- 开发和验证ERI的预测模型.
- 为评估ERI风险提供临床工具.
主要方法:
- 一项回顾性研究涉及787名没有复发内肠接 (NRI) 的儿童和82名ERI的儿童.
- 单变量和多因素阶段逻辑回归分析以确定风险因素.
- 使用后勤回归,ROC曲线和DCA的预测模型的开发和验证.
主要成果:
- 年龄,吐,血便和单细胞比率被确定为ERI的独立风险因素 (P<0.05).
- 该预测模型表现出强的性能,AUC为0.883 (95%CI:0.846-0.920).
- 校准曲线与理想预测有很好的一致性,DCA证实了显著的临床效用.
结论:
- ERI的主要独立风险因素包括年龄,吐,血和单细胞比率.
- 一岁以上的儿童,没有吐/血,但单细胞增加,风险更高.
- 开发的预测模型为临床医生在管理ERI时提供了有价值的参考.
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