初级非转移性食道癌的生存趋势和条件生存:基于SEER人口的研究和外部验证
Wei Sun1, Xiaoyu Zhang2, Zeting Qiu1
1Department of Anesthesiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China.
Translational cancer research
|November 16, 2023
概括
非转移性食道癌 (nMEC) 患者的条件生存率随着时间的推移显著改善. 开发了一种新型名谱来预测这些动态生存趋势,为长期结果提供更准确的预后.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 初级非转移性食道癌 (nMEC) 患者的动态生存趋势在很大程度上是未知的.
- 传统的生存分析可能无法完全捕捉患者随着时间的推移而变化的预后.
研究的目的:
- 进行初级nMEC.患者的条件生存 (CS) 分析.
- 开发和验证一种新型名谱,用于预测该患者群体中CS概率.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库的数据,用于大量nMEC患者队列.
- 采用条件生存分析,日志等级测试和考克斯回归来确定预后因素并计算CS概率.
- 使用校准曲线和C指数构建和验证内部和外部数据集的诺姆图.
主要成果:
- 分析包括来自SEER数据库的9,008名患者和外部验证队列中的37名患者.
- 条件生存率显著改善;例如,诊断时1年的CS为69.6%,3年的CS为43.1%,到第五个条件年增加到95.2%和86.2%.
- 开发的CS名图表显示出良好的校准和预测准确性,C指数在整个队列中从0.683到0.700不等.
结论:
- 与nMEC患者的传统生存率相比,条件生存率提供了一个更为动态和信息化的视角.
- 对于nMEC患者的CS率显示出改善和稳定几年生存后的趋势.
- 经过验证的诺基图为预测nMEC患者条件生存概率提供了宝贵的工具.
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