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导航货币估值中的相互关联风险:揭示气候政策不确定性的作用
Sahar Afshan1,2, Ummara Razi3, Ken Yien Leong3
1Department of Economics and Finance, Sunway Business School, Sunway University, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia. sahar.afshan15@gmail.com.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|November 16, 2023
概括
气候政策的不确定性对东盟国家的货币估值产生重大影响,加剧了经济政策的不确定性和地缘政治风险. 解决这些不确定性对于区域宏观经济稳定和经济增长至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 国际金融 国际金融
- 气候政策分析 气候政策分析
背景情况:
- 可持续的气候条件对于经济稳定和金融性至关重要.
- 气候政策的模糊性对货币估值和宏观经济稳定构成风险.
- 了解气候政策,经济不确定性和地缘政治风险之间的相互作用对东盟经济至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候政策不确定性与东盟国家的货币估值之间的关系.
- 分析气候政策对经济政策不确定性和货币估值的地缘政治风险的相互影响.
- 为减轻气候和经济政策不确定性提供政策建议.
主要方法:
- 波形连贯性分析的波形连贯性分析
- 部分波形连贯性分析
- 对2000年至2022年的数据进行分析.
主要成果:
- 气候政策的不确定性是汇率波动的重要驱动因素.
- 气候政策的不确定性放大了经济政策的不确定性和地缘政治风险对货币估值的影响.
- 在气候政策的不确定性和汇率之间存在一个有害的循环,影响宏观经济稳定.
结论:
- 气候政策的不确定性对东盟货币估值和区域经济稳定构成重大风险.
- 政策建议包括建立气候风险管理框架和提高政策可信度.
- 促进区域一体化可以有助于减轻地缘政治风险对汇率的影响.
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