分区流行病学模型的安全关键控制与测量延迟
Tamas G Molnar1,2, Andrew W Singletary2, Gabor Orosz1,3
1Department of Mechanical EngineeringUniversity of Michigan Ann Arbor MI 48109 USA.
概括
本研究提出了一种通过将流行病学模型视为控制系统来控制传染病传播的新方法. 它通过管理干预来确保安全,以保持人口在安全范围内,即使有延迟.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 控制系统工程 控制系统工程
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 传染病建模对于公共卫生至关重要.
- 现有的模型本身可能无法保证预防疾病传播的安全性.
- 人类干预是关键,但其影响需要正式控制.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种方法来保证流行病学模型的安全性.
- 设计控制器来管理人类干预及其影响.
- 解决延误对安全的影响,并提出补偿方法.
主要方法:
- 将流行病学模型视为通用的分隔控制系统.
- 设计安全关键的控制器,以保持人口在规定的范围内.
- 分析测量延迟 (化,测试) 的影响,并使用预测反.
主要成果:
- 在干预中传播疾病的安全演变的正式保证.
- 展示延迟补偿技术,以提高安全性.
- 综合积极干预政策,以限制感染,住院和死亡.
结论:
- 一个新的控制理论框架可以确保传染病管理中的安全性.
- 预测反有效地弥补了流行病监测的延迟.
- 这种方法为现实世界的流行病反应提供了强有力的方法,如美国的COVID-19所示.
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