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澳大利亚的地力学纠正的普略纪海岸线高度与南极冰层损失的中距离预测一致
Fred D Richards1, Sophie L Coulson2,3, Mark J Hoggard4
1Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK.
对于未来气候预测至关重要的中普略纪海平面估计,通过对地幔引起的海岸线扭曲进行校正来改进. 这一修订后的估计表明,在未来的变暖情景下,南极冰盖更稳定.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 海平面研究研究 海平面研究
背景情况:
- 普略纪中期的气候条件类似于未来的预测.
- 普略世中期海平面估计对于预测冰盖行为和海平面上升至关重要.
- 由于地幔动态扭曲古海岸线,现有的估计有很大差异.
研究的目的:
- 量化和纠正普略纪后的垂直陆地运动.
- 为了建立一个更准确的中普略纪全球平均海平面.
- 为了重新校准未来的海平面上升预测.
主要方法:
- 澳大利亚海平面标记的汇编.
- 地动力学模拟地幔动力学.
- 概率反转来消除垂直运动效应.
- 为动态地形和冰川静态调整进行校正.
主要成果:
- 动态地形被确定为古海岸线偏移的主要原因.
- 确定了修订后的普略纪中期全球平均海平面+16.0米.
- 修订后的估计表明南极冰盖的稳定性更大.
结论:
- 准确的古海岸线校正对于可靠的海平面重建至关重要.
- 普略世中期的海平面为气候模型提供了关键的基准.
- 未来的海平面上升预测可能需要根据南极冰盖稳定性的修订进行调整.
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