一种强大的基于插值的法医土壤来源方法:贝叶斯概率比率方法
Michael G Aberle1, Patrice de Caritat2, James Robertson1
1National Centre for Forensic Studies, University of Canberra, Bruce, Australian Capital Territory 2617, Australia.
Forensic science international
|November 17, 2023
概括
城市地区的土壤来源可以在空间上限制警方搜索. 使用地化学数据的新概率比率方法为法医案例工作提供了强有力的土壤证据,改善了资源分配和情报行动.
科学领域:
- 法医科学 法医科学 法医科学
- 地质化学 地质化学
- 地理空间分析的研究.
背景情况:
- 土壤是一种复杂的材料,在法医案例工作中具有显著的证据潜力.
- 准确的土壤来源对于空间限制警察搜索区域和优先考虑资源至关重要.
- 现有的土壤来源的方法通常依赖于任意的门,限制了它们的有效性.
研究的目的:
- 记录化学元素在城市/郊区环境中的分布,用于法医土壤来源.
- 开发和评估一种新的概率比率方法,以避免任意的门.
- 展示一种用于升级插入土壤数据网格和排名变量的方法.
主要方法:
- 在澳大利亚堪培拉进行了地表土壤调查 (0-5厘米深),收集了685个样本.
- 利用X射线光 (XRF) 和感应合等离子体质谱 (ICP-MS) 进行地质化学分析.
- 开发了一种使用考奇分布的概率比率方法,以评估土壤样本和证据材料之间的分析相似性.
主要成果:
- 新的概率比率方法提供了一个不受约束的,基于分析相似性的逐步过渡,与基于值的方法不同.
- 成功评估了一种用于升级微型到粗的插入网格 (25m至500m) 的新方法.
- 使用随机匹配概率对变量进行客观排名,提高了来源图的一致性和稳定性.
结论:
- 开发的土壤来源模型为法医案例工作提供了更一致和更强大的方法.
- 该方法通过提供更细致的相似性评估来增强土壤作为证据的实用性.
- 这项研究为执法和情报行动提供了有价值的工具,需要对土壤证据进行空间分析.
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