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反向建模揭示了2018-2020年中国HCFC-141b排放的反向趋势

Yahui Sun¹, Bo Yao^2,3, Xiaoyi Hu¹

¹College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, P. R. China.

Environmental science & technology

|November 18, 2023

概括

全球HCFC-141b的排放量再次上升,这是一个强大的臭氧破坏物质. 这项研究量化了中国排放量的增加,有助于解释全球排放量再次上升,并减少了排放源的不确定性.

科学领域:

大气化学大气化学
环境科学环境科学
臭氧层保护保护臭氧层的保护

背景情况:

HCFC-141b (1,1-二-1-乙烯) 在化碳化合物 (HCFC) 中具有破坏臭氧层的最大潜力.
它的生产和消费受到蒙特利尔议定书的监管.
最近的全球排放数据显示,从2017年到2020年,全球排放量再次上升,中国的贡献不清楚.

研究的目的:

在2018-2020年期间,量化中国的HCFC-141b排放量.
调查中国排放对HCFC-141b.最近全球上升的贡献.
通过识别排放源来协调全球排放的增加.

主要方法:

使用了灵活粒子 (FLEXPART) 分散模型.
采用贝叶斯的框架来量化排放.
分析了来自中国各地越来越多地点的大气测量结果.

主要成果:

中国估计的HCFC-141b排放量从2017年的15.5 Gg年-1增加到2018年至2020年的平均19.4 Gg年-1.
这代表了从中国的3.9Gg年−1显著上升.
全球未追踪排放的比例从大约70%降至46%.

结论:

中国增加的HCFC-141b排放量是最近全球排放量上升的一个关键驱动因素.
该研究成功地协调了全球排放量的增加,将4.3 ± 4.5 Gg年−1归因于中国.
减少未追踪的排放提高了我们对HCFC-141b排放源的了解,并为政策的有效性提供了信息.

关键词:

中国中国中国中国.在HCFC-141b中,蒙特利尔议定书蒙特利尔议定书蒙特利尔气候变化气候变化气候变化排放量排放量排放量排放量排放量排放量反向建模的反向建模在平流层中恢复臭氧.

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