数字服务贸易如何非线性地影响碳排放? 来自G20国家的实证证据
Fuzhong Chen1,2, Guohai Jiang3
1The Academy of China Open Economy Studies, University of International Business and Economics, 10 Huixin Dongjie, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|November 18, 2023
概括
数字服务贸易最初会恶化碳排放,但在更高的水平上对环境可持续性变得有利. 人力资本对于这种积极影响至关重要,它有助于减少碳排放的努力.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 数字经济数字经济
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 数字服务贸易的快速增长带来了复杂的环境影响.
- 了解数字贸易和碳排放之间的细微关系对于可持续发展至关重要.
- 以前的研究还没有完全捕捉到涉及的非线性动态和调节因素.
研究的目的:
- 调查G20国家数字服务贸易与碳排放之间的非线性关系.
- 确定通过数字服务贸易影响碳排放的调解机制.
- 检查人力资本在这种关系中的调节作用.
主要方法:
- 在2005-2021年期间,对42个G20国家的数据进行了计量经济学分析.
- 应用非线性回归模型来捕捉反转的U形关系.
- 调解和调节分析,以探索潜在的机制和条件效应.
主要成果:
- 在数字服务贸易和碳排放之间发现了显著的反转U形关系.
- 数字服务贸易最初增加了碳排放 (通过数字基础设施),但后来减少了碳排放 (通过工业优化和低碳技术的采用).
- 人力资本显著缓和了这种关系,增强了数字服务贸易的碳抑制效应.
结论:
- 数字服务贸易对环境的影响取决于其规模和人力资本水平.
- 政策干预应侧重于利用数字贸易带来环境效益,同时减轻其负面影响.
- 增强人力资本对于最大限度地提高数字服务贸易的积极环境效应至关重要,以实现碳中和目标.
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