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使用高级优化离散灰色模型预测全球塑料生产和微塑料排放.

Subhra Rajat Balabantaray1, Pawan Kumar Singh2, Alok Kumar Pandey3

  • 1School of Business, Dr. Vishwanath Karad MIT World Peace University, Pune, India.

Environmental science and pollution research international
|November 18, 2023
PubMed
概括

这项研究使用增强的灰色预测模型预测了全球塑料生产和微塑料排放. DGM (1,1,α) 模型准确地预测了微塑料排放量,预计到2030年将达到1,084,018.

关键词:
灰色系统理论:灰色系统理论.微塑料是一种微塑料.塑料 塑料的 塑料的预测 预测 预测在生产生产生产生产生产.

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科学领域:

  • 环境科学 环境科学
  • 污染研究 污染研究
  • 预测建模预测建模

背景情况:

  • 塑料污染,特别是淡水中的微塑料,对环境和公共健康构成重大风险.
  • 微塑料的积累需要准确预测生产和排放水平.
  • 了解这些趋势对于制定有效的缓解策略至关重要.

研究的目的:

  • 预测全球塑料生产和微塑料排放.
  • 为了比较四种增强灰色预测模型的准确性:EGM (1,1,α,θ),DGM (1,1),EGM (1,1),和DGM (1,1,α).
  • 确定最适合用于预测微塑料排放和塑料生产的模型.

主要方法:

  • 使用增强的灰色预测模型,包括EGM (1,1,α,θ) 和DGM (1,1,α).
  • 使用诸如平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 和根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 等指标比较模型准确性.
  • 应用最准确的模型来预测未来的塑料生产和微塑料排放趋势.

主要成果:

  • DGM (1,1,α) 模型在预测微塑料排放方面表现出更高的准确性.
  • EGM (1,1,α, θ) 模型在预测全球塑料生产时显示出略有更好的准确性.
  • 根据DGM (1,1,α) 模型,预计到2030年微塑料排放量将达到1,084,018.

结论:

  • 增强的灰色预测模型是预测塑料生产和微塑料排放的有效工具.
  • 建议使用DGM (1,1,α) 模型进行微塑料排放预测,而EGM (1,1,α, θ) 则适用于塑料生产.
  • 调查结果为决策者提供了关键的见解,以解决塑料污染及其对环境的影响.