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在欧洲盆地气候变化情景下,环境流量如何影响水的可用性?
Paola Bianucci1, Alvaro Sordo-Ward1, Beatriz Lama-Pedrosa1
1Department of Civil Engineering: Hydraulics, Energy and Environment, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid 28040, Spain.
The Science of the total environment
|November 19, 2023
概括
环境流 (Qeco) 对河流健康至关重要,但可以限制水的使用. 气候变化加剧了水资源短缺,使生态系统需求和人类需求的平衡变得具有挑战性. 本研究分析了欧洲的盆地,以了解在这些压力下水的可用性.
科学领域:
- 水文学 水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 环境流 (Qeco) 对于健康的河流生态系统至关重要,但往往与用水需求相冲突.
- 预计气候变化将减少许多欧洲水文系统的水资源,加剧对河流生态系统的压力.
- 在不断变化的气候条件下,平衡生态系统保护与人类水需求变得越来越复杂.
研究的目的:
- 在气候变化情景下对不同环境流量确定标准进行全面分析欧洲河流盆地的行为.
- 评估气候变化对可用水 (WA) 和其饮用和灌可靠性的影响.
- 为了比较两个计算环境流量的方法 (Qeco1和Qeco2) 以及它们对水资源管理的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用WAAPA水分配模型来估计欧洲盆地的水供应量 (WA).
- 使用两种不同的方法计算环境流量 (Qeco):Qeco1基于月平均流量 (MMF),Qeco2基于年平均流量 (MAF).
- 分析了历史数据 (1960-2000) 和40个未来气候变化预测 (2020-2099) 在四个排放场景 (RCP2.6-RCP8.5) 和五个气候模型.
主要成果:
- 气候变化对欧洲平均年流量 (MAF) 的影响在整个欧洲是空间变化的,并取决于排放场景,在严重的场景下,超过70%的盆地显示MAF减少.
- 保守的环境流量值显著限制了水的可用性 (WA),给水系统带来了与气候变化影响相似的压力.
- 河流调节能力可以有效缓冲气候变化和严格的环境流量要求的不利影响.
结论:
- 了解盆地对环境流量标准和气候变化的反应对于有效的水资源管理至关重要.
- 该研究提供了对欧洲河流系统的水利用,生态系统健康和气候变化适应之间的权衡的关键见解.
- 考虑到流量变化和监管能力的综合水资源管理策略是必要的,以确保生态系统和人类需求的可持续水资源.
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