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客座位安排策略的优化基于威尔斯-莱利风险理论
Yanxi Liu1, Xuan Cheng1, Dengzhao Tang1
1Department of Airport, School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, China.
PloS one
|November 20, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了改进的威尔斯-莱利模型,用于评估飞机上的乘客感染风险. 降低乘客负载率和战略空座可以显著减少民用航空运输期间的疾病传播.
科学领域:
- 航空安全和公共卫生.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 民用航空运输促进了全球呼吸道疾病的传播,原因是机环境狭窄.
- 评估和减轻飞行中的感染风险对于公共卫生至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种改进的威尔斯-莱利模型,用于评估飞机机中的乘客感染风险.
- 评估机通风,乘客定向,负载因子和空座方案对疾病传播的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种增强的威尔斯-莱利模型,包括机通风和乘客头部方向.
- 该模型的有效性被证实使用现有的公布数据.
- 模拟评估了乘客负载率,空座策略和感染人数之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 感染个体的数量与乘客负载因子直接相关.
- 与过道或中间座位相比,窗座的感染风险较低.
- 实施空座计划,特别是在中间或通道位置,可以将平均机感染概率降低高达37.47%.
结论:
- 开发的模型为航空公司提供了一个工具,以优化负载因子和座位安排.
- 可以实施战略,以平衡经济效益与降低乘客感染风险.
- 航空公司可以通过控制基于流行病状况的负载因子和利用战略性座位安排来缓解疾病传播.
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