老龄化国家的脆弱性:在前现代社会中的生存分析
Marten Scheffer1, Egbert H van Nes1, Luke Kemp2
1Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen NL-6700 AA, The Netherlands.
概括
随着时间的推移,政治国家的弹性下降,在形成后的前两个世纪中,终止的风险显著增加. 这种模式表明,老龄化国家变得更加脆弱,这一发现得到了前现代政体的定量分析的支持.
科学领域:
- 历史社会学 历史社会学
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 量化历史 量化历史
背景情况:
- 国家和大国的兴衰是一个复杂的历史现象.
- 了解州长寿和随时间的脆弱性模式对于历史分析至关重要.
- 前现代国家为研究长期政治动态提供了丰富的数据集.
研究的目的:
- 调查政治国家是否随着年龄的增长而表现出降低的弹性.
- 为了确定前现代国家长寿的定量模式.
- 提供实证支持关于国家随时间的脆弱性假设.
主要方法:
- 生存分析是一种常用于生物学和工程学的统计技术,应用于数百个前现代国家的数据集.
- 该研究分析了国家发展的不同阶段,国家终止的风险.
- 评估了长寿模式,以确定脆弱性是否随着年龄增长而增加.
主要成果:
- 在国家形成后的前200年左右,国家终结的风险急剧增加.
- 在最初的两个世纪之后,终结的风险稳定了下来.
- 这些发现提供了第一个支持国家弹性随着时间的推移而减弱的假设的定量证据.
结论:
- 现代化前的政治国家表现出随着年龄的增长,弹性有了可量化的下降.
- 诸如环境退化,日益复杂化,不平等和开采机构等机制可能推动这种抗灾能力的下降.
- 在前现代时期观察到的国家脆弱性的动态可能对理解当代政治体系具有相关性.
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