奔二胺使用的发展趋势和经济负担:来自10年预测模型的见解
Andro Koren1, Luciana Koren1, Robert Marcec1
1School of Medicine, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia.
Value in health regional issues
|November 20, 2023
概括
克罗地亚的二胺 (BZD) 使用量正在上升,预计二胺和阿尔普拉佐拉姆的使用量将大幅增加. 这一趋势需要采取监管措施,以减轻与长期BZD依赖和医疗保健成本相关的风险.
科学领域:
- 药理学 药理学是指药理学的学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 在克罗地亚,类药物 (BZD) 通常用于治疗焦虑,失眠,情绪障碍和发作.
- 长期使用BZD与不良影响有关,包括记忆力丧失,阿尔茨海默氏症,依赖,成,老年人跌倒和意外风险增加.
研究的目的:
- 预测克罗地亚10年内全国的二使用量和相关的财务成本.
- 告知医疗保健决策者关于当前BZD处方趋势的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用克罗地亚药品和医疗器械机构的药物消费数据.
- 在R中使用自回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型来预测BZD,迪亚泽帕姆和阿尔普拉佐拉姆的使用和成本.
- 在10年的时间框架内预测的趋势.
主要成果:
- 在2012年至2020年期间,二二胺的消费量增加了高达18.6%.
- 在同一时期,对Diazepam和alprazolam的使用量分别增长了29.1%和19.4%.
- 预测显示,到2032年,BZD,西帕姆和阿尔普拉佐拉姆的使用量将大幅增加,预计BZD的总体支出将达到1422万欧元.
结论:
- 预计BZD使用量的增加将导致医疗保健支出增加,并增加不良影响的发生率.
- 国家医疗保健决策者应实施监管和立法措施,以控制每个患者每月使用BZD.
- 这些措施可以帮助管理负面副作用,同时确保真正需要治疗的患者获得治疗.
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