一种概率决定论方法,用于评估气候变化对社会组织污水排放下游感染风险的影响
J Derx1, H Müller-Thomy2, H S Kılıç1
1Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, TU Wien, Vienna, Austria.
Water research
|November 20, 2023
概括
气候变化可能会增加城市河流中因综合下水道溢流 (CSO) 的病原体风险. 一个新的模型预测了游泳者未来的感染风险,强调了公民社会组织预防的必要性,以确保水上安全.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候变化建模模型
背景情况:
- 综合下水道溢出 (CSO) 将病原体排放到城市娱乐用水中,造成公共卫生风险.
- 预计气候变化将加剧这些风险,需要改进城市河流水质量的预测方法.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的概率决定性模型,用于预测城市河流中的微生物水质和感染风险.
- 以物理可信的未来降雨情景来评估气候变化对这些风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 从21个区域气候模型对参考和未来时期 (短期和长期) 的每日降水时间序列的分类和验证.
- 在休使用期间预测肠球菌,Giardia和Cryptosporidium度以及相关的感染风险.
- 该模型应用于用于各种娱乐活动的奥地利城市河流流域.
主要成果:
- 在最坏的情况下 (儿童洗),基准期内Giardia和Cryptosporidium的第95百分点感染风险从冬季的0.08%到夏季每次暴露事件的8%.
- 预计未来的感染风险在个别情景下会增加0.8 log10.
- 该研究发现,需要采取民间组织预防措施,以确保可持续的水安全.
结论:
- 开发的建模方法对于预测气候变化对城市水安全的影响是有效的.
- 该方法可以支持选择可持续的缓解措施,以缓解与民间社会组织相关的风险.
- 未来的研究应该专注于减少当地规模的预测不确定性.
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