在改进的基于Z数的贝叶斯网络方法下,在油轮上装载原油操作期间对石油泄漏的量化风险分析
Sukru Ilke Sezer1, Gizem Elidolu2, Emre Akyuz2
1Department of Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering, Iskenderun Technical University, Iskenderun 31200, Hatay, Turkey; Department of Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Tuzla 34940, Istanbul, Turkey.
Marine pollution bulletin
|November 20, 2023
概括
对原油油轮的定量风险分析显示,在货物装载过程中发生石油泄漏的概率为2.90E-02. 这项研究提高了海上运营的运营安全和污染预防.
科学领域:
- 海上安全的航行.
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 环境保护 环境保护
背景情况:
- 原油货运运营本质上带有重大油污风险,尽管船员采取了严格的安全措施.
- 防止海上活动造成的污染是全球关键问题.
研究的目的:
- 对原油油轮发生的油污事件进行定量风险分析.
- 提高运营安全,防止原油货运过程中的污染.
主要方法:
- 使用贝叶斯网络 (BN) 进行因果变量分析.
- 整合了改进的Z数理论,以管理不确定性并提高专家判断的可靠性.
主要成果:
- 在原油油轮货物加载操作期间,油泄漏风险的计算概率为2.90E-02.2.
- 该方法有效地处理专家评估中的不确定性.
结论:
- 这些发现为海上运营中的风险管理提供了宝贵的见解.
- 建议支持船员,安全检查员,船主和管理人员在决策中,以尽量减少石油泄漏和提高安全.
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