在意大利 (1921-2021) 解开人口趋势与空间计量经济学
Leonardo Salvatore Alaimo1, Clio Ciaschini2, Francesca Mariani2
1Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185, Rome, Italy. leonardo.alaimo@uniroma1.it.
Scientific reports
|November 21, 2023
概括
这项研究研究了意大利市镇的人口动态,揭示了密度和过去的增长如何影响一个世纪的人口变化. 调查结果显示,这些因素在不同城市化阶段有很大差异,影响了区域差异.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 区域科学 地区科学
- 空间经济学 空间经济学
背景情况:
- 调查人口动态中的密度依赖和路径依赖对于理解区域差异至关重要.
- 欧洲,特别是地中海地区,缺乏广泛的研究这些长期的人口趋势在不同的当地环境.
- 社会经济力量在很大程度上影响了区域差异,需要对历史人口变化的分析.
研究的目的:
- 分析意大利人口动态中的密度依赖和路径依赖,从1921年到2021年.
- 评估社会经济因素在区域人口差异中的演变作用.
- 通过空间计量经济学来理解大都市周期和城乡梯度.
主要方法:
- 利用计量经济学建模,包括全球和量子 (空间) 回归.
- 分析了10个时期 (1921-2021) 超过8000个意大利市镇的数据.
- 管理空间异质性以验证密度依赖和路径依赖的动态.
主要成果:
- 密度和滞后的人口增长显示,意大利整个城市周期对人口动态的影响不同.
- 在紧的城市化 (1951-1981) 期间,模型具有很高的适合性,在郊区化/反城市化 (1981-2021) 期间,适合性下降.
- 密度依赖 (正值) 和路径依赖 (负值) 在紧的城市化过程中是显著的,但在以后变得不那么重要.
结论:
- 空间计量经济学分析揭示了不同的密度依赖和路径依赖机制,影响人口动态.
- 该研究为大都市周期和沿城乡梯度发展的社会经济体系的演变提供了原始的解释.
- 调查结果强调了社会经济力量在一个世纪的人口变化中对区域差异的影响的变化.
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