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评估风险预测与数据收集成本:测试权衡曲线的新型估计.
1Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA.
概括
测试权衡曲线有助于确定是否收集风险预测数据对治疗决策有价值. 这种新方法使用个别风险分数来估计曲线,改进了需要数据分组的旧方法.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 医疗决策的制定 医疗决策的制定
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 测试权衡曲线有助于评估风险预测数据对治疗决策的有用性.
- 它定义了每个真正正值的最低数据收集点,以根据收益成本比或风险值来证明风险预测的合理性.
- 一个高的测试权衡,比如每一个真正的阳性癌症预测有3000个测试,可能表明风险预测不具有成本效益.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种新的方法,用个别风险得分来估计测试权衡曲线.
- 为了提供一种更直接,更有吸引力的替代方法,而不是以前的方法,需要分组风险分数.
- 用合成数据集评估新方法的性能.
主要方法:
- 使用个别风险分数,估计一个凸的接收机操作特征 (ROC) 曲线.
- 构建了ROC点的形外.
- 采用基于斜率的移动平均值,并将二次误差的总和最小化.
- 连接连续的ROC点与线段来导出测试权衡曲线.
主要成果:
- 这种新方法成功地从个别风险得分中估计了形ROC曲线.
- 估计的形ROC曲线产生了相应的估计测试权衡曲线.
- 对两个合成数据集的分析表明了该方法的适用性和有效性.
结论:
- 用个别风险分数估计测试权衡曲线的实施很简单.
- 这种方法比以前的方法更有利,需要风险评分分组.
- 该方法为优化临床决策风险预测数据收集提供了有价值的工具.
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