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在海平面上升的情况下评估沿海洪水危险的框架:适用于波斯湾
Maryam Irani1, Mohammad Mahdi Naderi2, Ali Reza Massah Bavani1
1Department of Water Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Iran.
Journal of environmental management
|November 22, 2023
概括
由于气候变化和海平面上升,沿海洪水是一个日益严重的威胁. 这项研究制定了一个框架来估计极端的总水位,对伊朗的波斯湾海岸预测了重大洪水风险.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 沿海工程 沿海工程
背景情况:
- 沿海地区对于社会经济活动和环境服务至关重要.
- 海平面上升和极端天气事件给沿海地区带来了重大洪水风险.
- 伊朗的波斯湾海岸,其工业重要性,是特别脆弱.
研究的目的:
- 引入一个框架来估计极端总水位 (TWL).
- 评估区域海平面上升 (RSLR),风暴潮和浪潮对沿海洪水的影响.
- 为了评估伊朗波斯湾沿岸的洪水风险.
主要方法:
- 利用了一个框架,将RSLR纳入RCP 8.5,高潮,100年风暴潮和100年波浪设置/运行.
- 在RSLR估计中使用了一组气候模型预测.
- 分析了极端波浪设置和风暴潮对TWL的贡献.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年该地区的RSLR为0.23米.
- 估计的极端波浪设置在0.19-0.66米之间,风暴潮在0.4-1.44米之间.
- 计算的极端TWL在当前海平面上空3.18至3.90米之间.
结论:
- 预计的TWL表明存在大量的洪水风险,可能会影响513平方公里的沿海土地 (占研究区域的16%).
- 这些发现凸显了波斯湾地区沿海人口和资产面临的严重洪水威胁.
- 洪水地区的相对排名确定了洪水减缓投资的优先领域.
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