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在日本的气候变化情景下,与温度相关的自杀预测
Ramita Thawonmas1, Masahiro Hashizume2, Yoonhee Kim3
1School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
Environmental health perspectives
|November 23, 2023
概括
预计气候变化将增加日本与温度相关的自杀,更高的排放将导致更高的死亡率. 缓解政策对于解决这些心理健康影响至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
- 心理健康研究 心理健康研究
背景情况:
- 对气候变化对心理健康影响的有限评估.
- 越来越多的证据将短期温度变化与自杀联系在一起.
- 未来预测温度归因于自杀的未来预测被低估了.
研究的目的:
- 在日本,项目过度温度与自杀相关的死亡率.
- 分析三种气候变化情景下的影响,直到20世纪90年代.
主要方法:
- 利用来自日本47个县的每日温度和自杀数据 (1973-2015年).
- 采用两阶段时间分层的案例交叉分析来确定温度与自杀的关联.
- 在SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5场景下使用五个通用循环模型 (CMIP6) 建模未来温度.
主要成果:
- 在所有情景中,与温度相关的过度自杀死亡率的估计净增加.
- 与2010-2019年相比,预计2090-2099年的净变化为:SSP1-2.6 (0.6%),SSP2-4.5 (1.3%),SSP5-8.5 (2.4%). 预计的净变化为2090-2099年的SSP1-2.6 (0.6%),SSP2-4.5 (1.3%),SSP5-8.5 (2.4%). 预计的净变化为2010-2099年的SSP1-2.6 (0.6%),SSP2-4.5 (1.3%),SSP5-8.5 (2.4%).
- 较高的排放场景与自杀死亡率的较大增加相关.
结论:
- 日本面临着与温度相关的自杀死亡率的潜在净增加,特别是在中间和极端排放场景下.
- 调查结果强调了气候变化缓解政策的必要性.
- 需要进一步研究气候变化对未来心理健康的影响,包括自杀.
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