预测气候变化和高CO2度对中国水灌水需求的影响
Bokai Sun1, Weiguang Wang1, Guoshuai Liu2
1The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
The Science of the total environment
|November 23, 2023
概括
气候变化缩短了中国的水生长季节,但二氧化碳水平升高减少了对水的需求. 这种"二氧化碳受精效应"对于未来的灌需求和粮食安全至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候变化影响研究 影响研究
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 气候变化和二氧化碳度的上升显著影响了的生理学和用水量.
- 了解这些影响对于水资源的可持续性和粮食安全至关重要,尤其是在中国,一个主要的大米生产国.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候和二氧化碳场景下,预测中国的色现象,作物用水需求 (ETC) 和灌需求 (IR) 的变化.
- 量化二氧化碳施肥效应对水的水消耗的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了两种米现象模型,修改的Penman-Monteith方程和米水平衡模型.
- 分析了2015年至2100年的11个全球气候模型 (GCM) 的输出.
- 模拟了中国四大大米产区的变化.
主要成果:
- 大多数地区的水生长期预计将缩短,但长江中流和下流流域除外.
- 农作物用水需求 (ETc) 和灌需求 (IR) 呈现不同的趋势,除了中下长江流域外,一般都在下降.
- 由于二氧化碳的施肥效应,大大降低了水需求,在SSP585.5下,到2090年代在长江地区可能节省8.87 × 10^8 m3的ETc和6.94 × 10^8 m3的IR.
结论:
- 未来的气候变化将改变中国的水现象学和水需求.
- 二氧化碳施肥效应在减轻水需求方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 准确的作物灌模拟必须纳入二氧化碳施肥效应,以有效地管理水资源和规划粮食安全.
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