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热带气旋的社会成本
Hazem Krichene1, Thomas Vogt1, Franziska Piontek1
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
Nature communications
|November 23, 2023
概括
热带气旋通过影响经济增长,显著增加了碳的社会成本 (SCC). 当前的气候政策可能低估了效益,因为它们没有充分考虑这些极端天气损害.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 灾害风险评估 灾害风险评估
背景情况:
- 热带气旋 (TCs) 造成长期的经济损害,但这些影响在碳社会成本 (SCC) 计算中被遗漏.
- 温室气体排放委员会对于为气候政策提供有关温室气体排放社会成本的信息至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化国家一级的SCC,考虑到损害TC的持续经济增长影响.
- 评估TC影响会计如何影响全球SCC估计和气候政策影响.
主要方法:
- 为41个受TC影响的国家开发了温度依赖的损伤功能.
- 集成TC损伤函数到SCC计算中,以估计持续增长效应的影响.
主要成果:
- 考虑到TC影响,全球SCC增加了20%以上,从每CO2的173美元增加到212美元.
- 这一增长主要是由于主要的温室气体排放国受到TC严重影响,包括印度,美国,中国,台湾和日本.
结论:
- 由于排除了TC损害,目前的气候政策益处可能被大大低估.
- 准确评估极端天气事件造成的损害对于有效的气候行动和政策评估至关重要.
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