在多重危险背景下对多米尼加在加勒比海的风风险评估
Peter Sammonds1, Akhtar Alam2,3, Simon Day1
1Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction (IRDR), University College London (UCL), Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
Scientific reports
|November 23, 2023
概括
风会造成诸如山体滑坡和洪水之类的复合危险,从而增加弱势群体面临的风险. 这项研究绘制了多米尼加多重风险的地图,整合了物理数据和当地知识,以更好地规划灾害.
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学 地球和环境科学
- 减少灾害风险 减少灾害风险
- 地理空间分析的研究.
背景情况:
- 风带来复合危险,包括山体滑坡和洪水,特别威胁脆弱的沿海人口.
- 多米尼加的地理位置,带有沿海定居点和的地形,加剧了风暴潮,山体滑坡和洪水的风险.
- 同时存在的危险会加剧影响,这凸显了综合多重风险评估的必要性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个框架来评估多米尼加风引起的多重危险风险.
- 整合物理危险易感性与社会经济脆弱性指标.
- 将当地和土著知识纳入灾难风险评估中.
主要方法:
- 使用频率比 (FR),分析层次过程 (AHP) 和地理信息系统 (GIS) 绘制易感度的宏观 (I级) 分析.
- 用快速质量运动模拟 (RAMMS) 和HEC-RAS进行风暴潮,山体滑坡和洪水的II级分析,并使用详细的危险建模.
- 整合了17个专家采访和4个与居民的参与性研讨会,以捕捉当地风险感知.
主要成果:
- 风复合危险,脆弱性和累积风险的空间模式在多米尼加被绘制成地图.
- 实地验证证了各种规模的预测危险场景的准确性.
- 纳入当地知识为社区的风险感知和优先事项提供了关键的见解.
结论:
- 该研究提供了一个新的,可实施的框架,用于多重危险风险评估,结合不同的数据形式.
- 调查结果提供了关键数据,以告知多米尼加的风险减轻战略和基于社区的灾害行动.
- 了解和解决复合危险对于精确减少灾害风险至关重要.
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