英国未来的烟草控制政策对健康,经济和公平的影响:微观模拟研究
Vincy Huang1, Iain Buchan1, Simon Capewell1
1Department of Public Health, Policy & Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|November 24, 2023
概括
实现英国的无烟目标需要政策干预. 增加30%的税收和加强戒烟服务可以帮助到2035年实现5%的吸烟率目标.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生
- 健康经济学
- 流行病学
背景情况:
- 吸烟仍然是一个重要的公共卫生问题,
- 根据目前的趋势,英国的目标是到2030年将吸烟率降至5%以下.
研究的目的:
- 评估额外政策对加速实现无烟目标的潜在影响.
- 评估各种烟草控制策略的健康,经济和公平结果.
主要方法:
- 一个微模拟模型 (IMPACTHINT) 被开发用于模拟2023-2072年30-89岁的英国成年人.
- 模拟了五种情景:基线,将最低烟草年龄提高到21岁 (MinAge21),增加30%的烟草税 (TaxUP),改善戒烟服务 (ServicesUP) 以及TaxUP和ServicesUP的组合.
- 该模型量化了吸烟率,疾病负担,经济影响和贫困五分之一的公平性.
主要成果:
- 没有一个模拟场景在2030年达到5%的吸烟率目标.
- 税收补贴计划和税收补贴计划/服务补贴计划可以在2035年实现这一目标.
- 综合方案预计到2072年吸烟相关疾病的病例将减少16万例;TaxUP预计病例将减少14万例.
- 单独使用TaxUP可以减少最贫困的五分之一的疾病负担50%.
- 与基线相比,所有政策都节省了成本.
结论:
- 目前的趋势将无法实现2030年无烟目标.
- 结合30%的烟草税增长和加强戒烟服务是实现所有社会经济群体到2035年普及率<5%的最有效策略.
- 政策干预对于减少吸烟相关疾病的负担和实现公共卫生目标至关重要.
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