英国空气污染的健康负担:使用最新的暴露风险关联的建模研究
Eloise A Marais1, Karn Vohra1, Jamie M Kelly1
1Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|November 24, 2023
概括
在英国,细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 的空气污染导致的过早死亡人数高于此前的估计. 农业排放是PM2.5的主要来源,对公众健康有很大的好处.
科学领域:
- 环境健康
- 流行病学
- 大气科学
背景情况:
- 长期暴露于环境细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 是全球主要的健康负担.
- 英国PM2.5,主要来自农业氨 (NH3),与显著的成年人过早死亡率有关.
- 之前的估计没有考虑到低PM2.5度的新发现的超线性风险.
研究的目的:
- 通过更新的健康风险模型,重新估计2019年英国的成年人早期死亡率.
- 纳入低度PM2.5的超线性暴露-反应关系.
- 评估农业排放对PM2.5相关死亡率的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用GEOS-Chem模型模拟英国环境PM2.5度.
- 英国国家统计局 (ONS) 的健康数据和全球疾病负担 (GBD) 的信息.
- 应用了混合健康风险模型,结合了线性和超线性暴露-反应曲线.
主要成果:
- 在2019年,英国估计有48,625 (95%CI为45,118-52,595) 个成年人因PM2.5而过早死亡.
- 这比旧模型估计的死亡人数多1万5千人.
- 这些死亡人数中,65岁及以上的人数占86%;伦敦地区的死亡人数最高.
结论:
- 对于英国成年人来说, PM2.5 的危险性比之前所认为的要大.
- 超线性暴露-反应曲线突出了针对主要的PM2.5来源的潜在公共健康益处.
- 减少农业排放是英国PM2.5的主要原因,对于改善公共卫生至关重要.
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