哈萨克斯坦COVID-19的流行病学和经济影响:基于代理物的建模
Berik Koichubekov1, Aliya Takuadina1, Ilya Korshukov1
1Department of Informatics and Biostatistics, Karaganda Medical University, Gogol St. 40, Karaganda 100008, Kazakhstan.
Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)
|November 24, 2023
概括
政府的流行病干预措施显著减少了COVID-19病例和成本. 我们的模型准确地预测了感染的传播,有助于为公共卫生保护分配资源.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 评估国家实施的流行病预防措施的有效性.
- 在COVID-19大流行期间评估公共卫生保护和资源管理.
研究的目的:
- 评估流行病预防措施对公共卫生和资源利用的有效性.
- 预测COVID-19的传播和经济影响.
主要方法:
- 基于COVID-19传播的随机代理模型.
- 利用COVID-ESFT版本2.0进行材料和劳动力成本估计.
主要成果:
- 长期预测 (50天) 显示稳定趋势;短期预测 (10天) 在疫情稳定期间准确.
- 感染传播在家庭中是最高的,主要影响26-59岁年龄组.
- 政府干预减少了3.2倍的病例,产生了40%的经济效益.
结论:
- 拟议的组合工具准确预测感染进展.
- 允许卫生组织及时分配专家和物质资源.
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