探索阿尔伯塔省癌症影响的未来:预测和趋势2020-2040年
Darren R Brenner1, Chantelle Carbonell1, Dylan E O'Sullivan1
1Department of Oncology, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB T2N 4N1, Canada.
Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.)
|November 24, 2023
概括
由于人口变化,阿尔伯塔省的癌症病例和死亡人数预计到2040年将大幅增加. 这种癌症影响需要战略规划和对研究和创新的投资.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 由于人口结构的变化,阿尔伯塔省的癌症影响正在增长.
- 癌症影响的未来 (FOCI) 倡议旨在了解当前的癌症护理,并确定创新机会.
研究的目的:
- 预测阿尔伯塔省到2040年的癌症流行病学估计和直接管理成本.
- 为未来的癌症护理战略规划和投资提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用了阿尔伯塔癌症登记数据 (1998-2018年发病率/死亡率,2000-2019年流行率).
- 在R中使用Canproj套件进行流行病学预测.
- 使用OncoSim所有癌症模型进行微观模拟,以估算成本.
主要成果:
- 预计到2040年 (从2020年开始) 新癌症病例将增加56%,癌症死亡人数将增加49%.
- 预计到2040年 (从2019年开始) 五年癌症患病率将增加86%.
- 预计到2040年,直接癌症管理成本将增加53%.
结论:
- 阿尔伯塔省面临着癌症负担和相关成本的大幅增加.
- 这些预测对于积极的癌症护理战略和资源配置至关重要.
关键词:
加拿大加拿大加拿大加拿大加拿大加拿大癌症 癌症 癌症 癌症 癌症癌症发生率 癌症发生率癌症管理成本 癌症管理成本癌症死亡率 癌症死亡率癌症的流行率 癌症的流行率癌症的生存率 癌症的生存率预测 预测 预测 预测趋势 趋势 趋势更多相关视频
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