人类引起的变暖导致夏季季风在东亚地区的正面降水加剧
Suyeon Moon1,2, Nobuyuki Utsumi3,4, Jee-Hoon Jeong5
1Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, South Korea.
Science advances
|November 24, 2023
概括
气候变化正在加剧东亚夏季季风的正面降雨. 这项研究量化了17%的正面降雨强度的增加,这是由人为变暖和增强的水分传输驱动的.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 东亚 (EA) 夏季季风的正面降雨对于人口密地区的水资源和洪水风险管理至关重要.
- 最近的趋势表明,夏季正面降雨的强度越来越大.
- 气候变化对EA正面降雨加剧的具体影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 量化EA夏季正面降雨强度的观察到的变化.
- 调查人为气候变化在EA正面降水加剧中的作用.
- 确定驱动EA正面降水加剧的机制.
主要方法:
- 在1958年至2015年的观测数据中使用客观方法检测正面系统.
- 采用了气候模型模拟,包括和没有温室气体强迫.
- 分析了水蒸气收和西北太平洋亚热带高峰的变化.
主要成果:
- 观察到1958年至2015年间,正面降雨强度增加了17 ± 3%.
- 气候模型显示,由于人为变暖,从1991年到2015年,EA夏季正面降水量增加了5.8%.
- 确定了增强的水蒸气收和强化的亚热带高气候作为关键的贡献因素.
结论:
- 人为变暖对EA夏季正面降水的加剧有很大影响.
- 由大气动力学驱动的湿度传输增加,加剧了正面降雨的强度.
- 这些发现表明,在未来的气候变化情景下,EA正面降水量持续增加.
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