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使用基于贝叶斯概率的模型预测头癌患者急性辐射皮炎的新方法

Keisuke Hamada¹, Toshioh Fujibuchi², Hiroyuki Arakawa²

¹Department of Radiological Technology, National Hospital Organization Kyushu Cancer Center, 3-1-1, Notame, Minami-ku, Fukuoka City, Fukuoka 811-1395, Japan; Department of Health Sciences, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyushu University, 3-1-1 Maidashi, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka 812-8582, Japan.

Physica medica : PM : an international journal devoted to the applications of physics to medicine and biology : official journal of the Italian Association of Biomedical Physics (AIFB)

|November 24, 2023

概括

这项研究引入了贝叶斯方法,用于预测头部和部放射治疗计划期间急性辐射皮炎 (ARD) 的概率. 该方法准确预测ARD等级,有助于主动皮肤护理和治疗策略的制定.

科学领域:

在瘤学瘤学.
辐射瘤学辐射瘤学
医学物理医学物理

背景情况:

急性辐射皮肤炎 (ARD) 是放射治疗的常见副作用.
在治疗计划期间预测ARD风险对于患者管理至关重要.
头部和部放射治疗,特别是体积调节弧线疗法 (VMAT),对ARD有很大的风险.

研究的目的:

开发一个基于贝叶斯概率的方法,用于在头部和部VMAT规划期间预测ARD等级.
使用皮肤剂量-体积参数建立一个预测模型.

主要方法:

从治疗计划系统中使用的皮肤剂量量>50 Gy (V50).
收集了来自119名头癌患者的ARD等级数据.
应用贝叶斯定理来计算基于V50.50的ARD等级 (G1,G2,G3) 的贝叶斯概率.

主要成果:

与V50相对ARD等级的经验分布遵循正常分布.
开发的方法在预测ARD等级方面实现了92.4%的准确性.
提供了与特定ARD等级概率相对应的V50值,例如,V50 ≤24.5cm3对于G1.1.的70%概率.

结论:

贝叶斯预测方法可以在放射治疗计划期间预测ARD等级.
为高风险ARD概率的皮肤护理干预措施的早期启动提供便利.
为放射性瘤学家提供了宝贵的V50数据,用于开发ARD减少策略.

关键词:

剧烈的辐射皮肤炎是什么贝叶斯概率是贝叶斯的概率.头部和部的辐射疗法可能性的预测预测.

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