在SARS-CoV-2感染中使用机器学习进行多变量风险建模和生存分析
Andrea Ciarmiello1, Francesca Tutino1, Elisabetta Giovannini1
1Nuclear Medicine Unit, Ospedale Civile Sant'Andrea, Via Vittorio Veneto 170, 19124 La Spezia, Italy.
Journal of clinical medicine
|November 25, 2023
概括
使用人口统计,CT扫描和血液检查的机器学习模型可以预测SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) 患者的严重结果. 该工具有助于早期识别高风险个体,以更好地管理重症监护.
科学领域:
- 医学成像和人工智能 医学成像和人工智能
- 传染病研究传染病研究.
- 计算病理学计算病理学
背景情况:
- 由SARS-CoV-2引起的COVID-19大流行导致了显著的发病率和死亡率.
- 预测SARS-CoV-2患者的关键结果对于及时干预和资源分配至关重要.
- 现有的预测模型往往缺乏全面的数据集成.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估用于预测SARS-CoV-2患者关键结果的机器学习模型.
- 评估整合人口统计变量,血液检测,并发病症和基于CT的放射性特征的预测性表现.
- 确定SARS-CoV-2感染中严重疾病和死亡率的关键预测因素.
主要方法:
- 对694名SARS-CoV-2阳性患者的回顾性分析.
- 数据收集包括人口统计,血液测试 (CRP,LDH,D-二次体),并发病症和CT衍生的放射性特征.
- 使用 LASSO 考克斯回归开发了一种机器学习模型,并在单独的测试集上进行评估.
- 模型性能使用C-统计和Brier分数进行评估.
主要成果:
- 该研究确定了D-二次体水平,年龄和心血管疾病作为关键结果的重要风险因素.
- 开发的机器学习模型在测试数据集中准确地将90%的未幸存者归类为高风险.
- 通过该模型识别的高风险患者的中位生存时间 (9天) 与低风险患者相比显著更短 (p < 0.001).
结论:
- 整合现有临床数据 (人口统计,CT-放射学,并发症,生物标志物) 的机器学习模型可以有效预测SARS-CoV-2患者的危急疾病和死亡率.
- 这种预测模型可以帮助临床医生在早期风险分层和严重COVID-19病例的管理.
- 这些发现强调了多式联运数据集成的潜力,以提高传染病的预后准确性.
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