在洪水危险之外. 绘制行人损失概率的地图,以改善风险估计和通信
Tommaso Lazzarin1, Albert S Chen2, Daniele P Viero1
1Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Padova, Italy.
The Science of the total environment
|November 25, 2023
概括
有效沟通洪水风险对于公共安全至关重要. 这项研究引入了一个新的洪水风险指数,损失概率 (LP),它比传统的洪水地图更容易理解和准确,用于公众传播.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 风险评估 风险评估
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
背景情况:
- 有效地沟通洪水危险和风险对于准备和弹性至关重要.
- 传统的洪水地图 (深度,速度) 通常很难让公众理解.
- 现有的危险指数有局限性,例如假设危险与速度之间的线性关系.
研究的目的:
- 为了解决当前洪水危险通信方法的局限性.
- 为公众提出一个更有效,更易于理解的洪水风险指数.
- 引入基于物理和数据一致的风险指数.
主要方法:
- 批判性地评估现有危险指数的局限性.
- 开发和提出用于洪水风险评估的损失概率 (LP) 指数.
- 证明LP能够考虑危险 (深度,速度) 和脆弱性.
主要成果:
- 确定了当前危险指数中固有的局限性,包括线性假设.
- 提出损失概率 (LP) 作为一个优越的洪水风险指数.
- LP很容易计算,并提供了更合理的洪水风险估计.
结论:
- 拟议的损失概率指数 (LP) 为公众传达洪水风险提供了更有效的方法.
- LP克服了传统洪水地图和危险指数的局限性.
- 改善洪水风险的沟通可以提高公众的准备,减少洪水的影响.
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