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在CMIP6气候变化下使用MaxEnt模型预测Batocera horsfieldi的潜在分布范围

Xinju Wei¹, Danping Xu¹, Quanwei Liu¹

¹College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China.

Journal of economic entomology

|November 25, 2023

概括

一种重要的木材枯燥害虫Batocera horsfieldi显示,由于气候变化而导致的潜在分布变化. 未来的预测表明适合息地的扩张,特别是在SSP2-4.5情景下,需要适应性害虫管理策略.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
昆虫学昆虫学是一门学科.
气候变化影响评估气候变化影响评估

背景情况:

虫 (Batocera horsfieldi) 是一种主要的木材破坏性害虫,影响着中国的森林和景观.
了解其分布对于有效的害虫管理和生态保护至关重要.

研究的目的:

根据当前和未来的气候场景,预测巴托塞拉马场的潜在分布.
确定影响其分布的关键环境变量.
为了告知害虫控制策略.

主要方法:

使用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS进行空间分布建模.
结合了216个分布记录与11个环境变量.
分析了当前的气候数据 (1970-2000) 和CMIP6未来的气候场景 (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5).

主要成果:

关键的环境变量包括温度范围,季节性,降水和海拔.
未来合适的分布区域在不同场景中各不相同,SSP2-4.5 (2050年代) 预计增加.
预计适合息地将向更高的度和高度转移.

结论:

预计气候变化将改变 Batocera horsfieldi 的分布模式.
预测强调了需要适应性,地理知情的害虫管理.
建议采用分级响应系统和有针对性的战略,以实现有效的控制.

关键词:

巴托切拉的马场马克斯恩特马克斯恩特气候变化气候变化气候变化找到适合的息地.

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