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一个基于弹性强度的强度评估框架,用于在不确定性下可持续的城市洪水管理
Mehri Dolatshahi1, Reza Kerachian2
1School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|November 26, 2023
概括
本研究引入了基于弹性的框架,以提高城市排水系统 (UDS) 对洪水的强度. 拟议的方法改进了洪水管理策略,比传统方法提高了40%的稳定性.
科学领域:
- 环境工程 环境工程
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 城市排水系统 (UDS) 由于沉积等内部威胁和气候变化等外部因素而面临故障.
- 评估洪水管理战略的稳定性需要考虑可靠性,弹性和社会生态弹性.
- 现有的框架可能无法充分解决影响城市洪水的经济,社会和水文因素的深层不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 为评估城市洪水管理策略的稳定性提出一种基于性的新框架.
- 将社会生态弹性原则纳入城市基础设施的洪水风险评估.
- 为了提高城市的可持续性和抗洪能力,在不确定的未来条件下.
主要方法:
- 一个基于弹性的框架,将非主导排序基因算法III (NSGA-III) 与风暴水管理模型 (SWMM) 联系起来.
- 使用证据推理 (ER) 和遗憾理论来计算洪水管理策略的总稳定性.
- 在社会生态弹性标准中纳入七个建立弹性的原则 (Biggs等人,2012).
主要成果:
- 发现的最强大的洪水管理策略包括水库的实时运行和建造五个新的救灾道.
- 与相同成本的传统方法相比,拟议的框架在稳定性方面显著增加 (约为40%).
- 该框架为重新设计和可持续运营城市基础设施提供了可行的政策,以减轻洪水风险.
结论:
- 开发的基于弹性的框架有效地提高了城市洪水管理战略的稳定性.
- 该方法比传统方法在解决城市洪水管理中的深层不确定性方面提供了显著的改进.
- 这些发现支持城市基础设施的重新设计和可持续运行,以提高对气候变化和其他威胁的抵御力.
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