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海洋前沿作为十年恒温器调节大陆变暖间歇

Mi-Kyung Sung¹, Soon-Il An^2,3, Jongsoo Shin⁴

¹Climate and Environmental Research Institute, Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul, Republic of Korea. mksung@kist.re.kr.

Nature communications

|November 27, 2023

概括

全球变暖可能会导致区域降温. 海洋前沿附近的海洋热浪会通过影响大气波来导致大陆的极端寒冷,这凸显了监测海洋前沿的必要性.

科学领域:

气候科学气候科学
海洋学海洋学海洋学
大气科学大气科学

背景情况:

在过去的十年中,在东亚和北美地区观察到一个意想不到的冬季降温趋势.
气候模型预测,由于自然的十年气候变化,在全球变暖期间,停滞不前的变暖模式,以及加速的变暖,将在全球变暖期间重演.
确定影响区域变暖速度的因素仍然是一个复杂的挑战.

研究的目的:

调查大陆变暖暂停和海洋条件之间的关系.
了解海洋热量积累如何影响大气行星波和下游大陆极端气候.
突出在人类引起的气候变化背景下监测海洋前沿的重要性.

主要方法:

对气候模型模拟和观测数据的分析,以确定变暖和变冷的模式.
海洋条件的调查,特别是海洋热浪,北方的海洋前线.
检查海洋条件对大气行星波的增长和随后的大陆天气模式的影响.

主要成果:

大陆变暖的暂停 (局部变暖暂停) 可能与海洋前沿北部过度热量积累相吻合.
这种海洋热量积累限制了大气行星波的季节性增长.
受到限制的行星波大大增加了寒冷极端在下游大陆发生的可能性.

结论:

海洋前沿的变化受到人类引起的变暖的影响,在调节区域气候波动方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
海洋热浪可以通过改变大气波动力学来加剧大陆的极端寒冷.
持续监测海洋前沿对于理解和预测长期区域气候变化和极端天气事件至关重要.

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