城市海的波浪突破估计模型的比较. 在巴斯克海岸建立一个预警系统
I de Santiago1, T A Plomaritis2, D Avalos3
1AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Herrera Kaia. Portualdea z/g, 20110 Pasaia, Gipuzkoa, Spain.
The Science of the total environment
|November 28, 2023
概括
这项研究发现,虽然参数波覆盖模型 (Mase等人,EurOtop) 可以预测覆盖的存在,但他们低估了危险水平. 基于过程的模型 (XBeach) 的性能因海形状而异,这表明模型组合技术可以更好地评估沿海危险.
科学领域:
- 沿海工程 沿海工程
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 应用数学 应用数学 应用数学
背景情况:
- 准确的波浪突破估计对于城市海安全和海岸防御至关重要.
- 现有的模型,包括参数 (Mase等,EurOtop) 和基于过程 (XBeach) 的模型,在复杂的沿海环境中具有不同的性能.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较Mase等人的表现. (2013年),EurOtop和XBeach模型在估计城市海的波浪突破.
- 调查沙形状和风暴特征对模型准确性的影响.
- 为城市海的沿海管理战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 马斯等人对马斯等人进行比较. (2013年),EurOtop和XBeach (冲浪节奏,非液压) 的模型.
- 利用了来自七个具有特定波浪条件的能量风暴 (2015-2022) 的数据 (Hs: 3-8m,Tp: 12-20s).
- 通过沿海视频测量收集了海斜率,岸面形状和覆盖数据;使用XBeach的随机种子模拟来解决不确定性.
主要成果:
- 马斯和其他人. (2013) 和EurOtop模型合理地预测了超标存在,但低估了危险水平.
- XBeach模型的性能受到海水下形状的影响,特别是在中等和中等风暴期间.
- 由于海的配置,观察到危险水平的沿海显著变化.
结论:
- 没有一个单一的模型始终优于其他模型,这表明需要模型组合技术来进行概率危险评估.
- 由于沿海风险的空间差异,地方适应措施至关重要.
- 在Zarautz海进行这项试点研究的结果可以扩展到巴斯克海岸的其他海.
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