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减轻SARS-CoV-2传播影响的长期疫苗接种策略:一项建模研究

Alexandra B Hogan^1,2, Sean L Wu³, Jaspreet Toor²

¹School of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.

|November 28, 2023

概括

对于高风险群体,特别是老年人来说,定期的COVID-19疫苗增剂是有效的. 专注于这些队列是减少当前和未来SARS-CoV-2变种严重疾病和死亡的最有效策略.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
免疫学免疫学免疫学
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

疫苗已经显著降低了COVID-19的严重程度和死亡率.
疫苗效率下降和病毒演变需要评估助推策略.
持续的传播和感染诱导的免疫力影响了强剂量决定.

研究的目的:

为了模拟未来COVID-19疫苗增剂策略的影响.
评估不同提振场景的成本效益.
为公共卫生计划提供关于最佳疫苗接种方法的信息.

主要方法:

开发了一种联合免疫传输模型.
用SARS-CoV-2的传染性,严重程度和疫苗有效性的数据进行参数化.
在不同的全球环境中模拟传播和疫苗推出,考虑变种演变.

主要成果:

75岁以上的个体的定期增强是一个有效的策略.
将疫苗接种扩展到年轻人群体可以避免大量住院和死亡.
在具有高自然免疫力的低覆盖范围环境中,促进老年群体比疫苗接种年轻人更有效.

结论:

定期增强高风险人群对于减少目前和未来SARS-CoV-2变种的发病率和死亡率至关重要.
将疫苗接种工作集中在风险最高的群体上是最有效和最具成本效益的策略.

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