在2023年MW 7.8Kahramanmaraş地震之前的几个月的地震过渡,土耳其,土耳其
G Kwiatek1, P Martínez-Garzón2, D Becker1
1Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
Nature communications
|November 28, 2023
概括
在2023年卡拉曼马拉斯地震前几个月观察到的地震过渡可能为地震准备提供了洞察力. 这些模式,包括集群地震活动和低b值,反映了实验室实验和模型.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
- 地震科学 地震科学 地震科学
背景情况:
- 短期地震预测 (强度,时间,位置) 仍然是地震学的重大挑战.
- 对地震观测的回顾性分析偶尔会发现潜在的前体现象.
研究的目的:
- 为了分析2023年MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş地震之前的地震性模式.
- 为了调查观察到的地震瞬态是否表现出与地震准备过程一致的特征.
主要方法:
- 在未来震中65公里范围内对地震强度数据的分析.
- 检查时空聚类,事件间时间统计,大小相关性和古登堡-里希特 b 值.
- 观察到的地震瞬态与实验室的棒滑试验和数值地震破裂模型的比较.
主要成果:
- 在地震发生前大约8个月,地震性过渡物被确定.
- 这些短暂的事件显示了与非波伊森统计学,大小相关性和低b值的孤立的时空集群.
- 预先的地震模式与实验室实验和断层破裂的数值模拟中观察到的情况一致.
结论:
- 鉴定到的地震性过渡物表现出表明地震准备的特征.
- 这些发现支持通过全面监测和长期地震记录来识别地震准备过程的潜力.
- 结合先进监测的进一步研究可能有助于将地震准备与其他区域变形事件区分开来.
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