应用对伤害严重程度的异构排列顺序试验模型,以改进年龄和性别估计
Amirreza Nickkar1, Shiva Pourfalatoun2, Erika E Miller2
1Department of Transportation & Urban Infrastructure Studies, Morgan State University, Baltimore, Maryland.
Traffic injury prevention
|November 29, 2023
概括
异种排列顺序探针 (HETOP) 模型通过考虑年龄和性别差异,更好地分析了车祸伤害严重程度. 这种先进的统计方法改善了与标准订序探针 (OP) 模型相比的预测.
科学领域:
- 交通安全研究 交通安全研究
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 运输工程 运输工程
背景情况:
- 司机的特点显著影响汽车事故的频率和严重性.
- 年龄和性别是影响机结果的关键人口统计因素.
- 标准排序探针 (OP) 模型通常使用,但异构排序探针 (HETOP) 可能提供更好的适应性.
研究的目的:
- 评估HETOP模型与标准OP模型在碰撞分析中的性能.
- 检查驾驶员年龄和性别对受伤严重程度的综合影响.
- 为了测试HETOP提供更好的适合的假设,通过模拟伤害严重程度的异种性质.
主要方法:
- 分析了2016年至2018年北卡罗来纳州发生的20222起事故.
- 标准排序探头 (OP) 和异种排序探头 (HETOP) 模型的比较.
- 调查与驾驶员年龄,性别,照明,道路和天气条件有关的伤害严重程度.
主要成果:
- 伤害严重程度的增加与更暗的照明,严重的道路状况和不那么恶劣的天气有关.
- 随着年龄的增长和男性驾驶员的年龄,重伤的概率越来越高.
- HETOP模型成功地解释了受伤严重程度在年龄和性别方面的差异增加.
结论:
- 在分析受年龄和性别影响的受伤严重程度方面,HETOP模型表现优于标准OP模型.
- 考虑到伤害严重程度的异种性质对于准确的分析至关重要.
- 在交通安全方面,HETOP方法具有更广泛的应用潜力,可以提高预测和因果变量的准确性.
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