在2020-2023年期间,不同脆弱性的国家过度死亡的变化在2020-2023年期间有所不同
John P A Ioannidis1,2,3,4, Francesco Zonta5, Michael Levitt6
1Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
概括
在COVID-19大流行期间,脆弱国家经历了显著更高的过度死亡,贫困和较低的GDP与死亡率增加有关. 国家的脆弱性,而不仅仅是流行病的时间,决定了整体死亡人数.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 过度死亡是诸如COVID-19大流行病等重大危机的关键指标.
- 准确的死亡登记和人口数据对于评估流行病影响至关重要.
- 脆弱性指标可以帮助解释危机结果的差异.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估各国的过度死亡轨迹.
- 评估国家脆弱性与过度死亡之间的关系.
- 通过年龄层来分析过度死亡率模式.
主要方法:
- 利用了34个国家的 (2020-2023) 人类死亡数据库.
- 以2017-2019年为参考计算的过度死亡,经过5个年龄层的调整.
- 根据GDP,收入不平等 (Gini) 和贫困率,将国家分为"较少"和"更脆弱"的国家.
主要成果:
- 过度死亡与GDP呈反相关性 (r=-0.60) 和与贫困呈正相关性 (r=0.66).
- 更脆弱的国家的死亡发病率比率较高 (1.062).
- 较为脆弱的国家的平均过度死亡率明显高 (在0-64岁和65岁以上的年龄组中分别为7.0%和7.2%),相比较于较不脆弱的国家 (-0.8%和0.4%).
结论:
- 由经济和社会因素定义的国家脆弱性,最终主导了大流行病的累积影响.
- 虽然流行病的发作有所不同,但社会经济因素决定了过度死亡率的严重程度.
- 分析的一半国家面临着大量的过度死亡,突出显示了全球流行病影响的差异.
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