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Chris Wyver¹, Simon G Potts¹, Mike Edwards²

¹Centre for Agri-Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development University of Reading Reading UK.

Ecology and evolution

|November 29, 2023

概括

气候变化正在推迟野生蜜蜂的出现日期,并在英国向北扩大它们的范围. 这项研究预测了重大变化,影响了对这些重要授粉者的保护工作.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
气候变化生物学气候变化生物学
保护生物学保护生物学

背景情况:

气候显著影响物种分布和活动周期.
英国的野生蜜蜂容易受到气候变化的影响,对它们的时空趋势的理解有限.
由于气候变化,在许多物种中观察到现象变化和范围扩张.

研究的目的:

评估气候对野生蜜蜂出现日期的影响,并预测未来趋势.
为野生蜜蜂物种建模当前和未来适合的气候环境.
在不断变化的气候条件下,为野生蜜蜂的保护战略提供信息.

主要方法:

使用滑窗方法来确定最佳的气候窗口,预测88个物种的蜜蜂出现日期.
用物种分布模型 (SDM) 来预测在历史和未来气候场景下适合的气候环境 (RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5).
未来的出现日期预计为2070-2079年期间.

主要成果:

预测出现的最佳气候窗口通常是在出现前0-3个月内.
40种物种的出现日期较晚,平均为13.4天 (RCP 4.5) 和24.9天 (RCP 8.5).
预计自20世纪80年代以来,92%的物种的气候环境将增加,预计范围将进一步向北扩大.

结论:

预计英国将在野生蜜蜂种群中经历北向转移.
保护工作必须考虑这些时空趋势,以进行有效的干预.
了解气候对蜜蜂表象和分布的影响对于未来的授粉者保护至关重要.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化分布模型的分布建模.现象学 (phenology) 是一种现象学.时间空间的变化.野生蜜蜂野生蜜蜂

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