公平的二氧化碳去除责任和能力之间的全球不匹配
Pu Yang1,2,3, Zhifu Mi1, Yi-Ming Wei4,5
1The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London WC1E 7HB, UK.
National science review
|November 29, 2023
概括
达到1.5°C需要在全球范围内进行大量的二氧化碳去除 (CDR). 公平的CDR分配给许多国家带来负担,可能超过他们的土地和储存能力,需要国际碳信用交易.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 将全球变暖限制在1.5°C需要大量的大气二氧化碳去除 (CDR).
- 目前对国家级CDR要求和能力的理解仍然有限.
- 净零排放目标取决于有效的CDR战略.
研究的目的:
- 量化国家一级的二氧化碳去除 (CDR) 需要达到1.5°C.
- 在国家一级评估国内CDR部署能力.
- 在170个国家之间探索全球CDR途径的公平分配.
主要方法:
- 基于六个公平原则的全球CDR途径的分配.
- 对CDR部署的国家生物物理和地物理能力的评估.
- 土地和地质储存限制的估计,以获得公平的CDR贡献.
主要成果:
- 公平的CDR分配在2030年占全国排放量的4%左右,在2040年达到17%左右.
- 15%的国家缺乏足够的土地,40%的国家缺乏足够的地质储备,以实现公平的CDR.
- 预计在2020-2050年期间对6 GtCO2碳信用的需求突出显示了产能不匹配.
结论:
- 公平的CDR分配挑战了国家能力,特别是土地和储存.
- 开发各种CDR技术对于弥合CDR负债和能力之间的差距至关重要.
- 由于预计的全球需求和国家限制,CDR的国际碳交易是必不可少的.
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