在中国碳中和目标的背景下,陆上风能成本动态
Shi Chen1, Youxuan Xiao1, Chongyu Zhang1
1School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
Environmental science and ecotechnology
|November 29, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 可再生能源经济学可再生能源经济学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 风能对于中国实现碳中和目标至关重要.
- 对风力发电成本下降和潜力的准确建模对于脱碳规划至关重要.
- 现有的研究低估了风力发电最近的成本削减.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个综合模型来评估陆上风电的成本竞争力和中国的电网平价.
- 为预测未来风力发电成本动态到2060年提供更新的参数.
- 为实现碳中和实现电力系统规划提供信息.
主要方法:
- 构建成本竞争力和电网平价评估的综合模型.
- 利用精细的空间分辨率数据来计算中国的陆上风力资源.
- 纳入反映最近成本下降的更新参数.
主要成果:
- 总的陆上风电潜力估计为54.0 PWh.
- 风力发电的平均平衡成本预计将从2020年的CNY 0.39/kWh下降到2060年的CNY 0.21/kWh.
- 风力发电成本竞争力与煤炭相比显著增加:28.3% (2020) 至97.6% (2060) 的技术潜力变得比煤炭便宜.
结论:
- 中国的陆上风力发电正在变得越来越具有成本竞争力.
- 预计成本下降支持风能在2060年实现碳中和方面的重要作用.
- 该研究提供了关于风能经济可行性和电网平价潜力的精细展望.
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