过去和未来的洪水风险:对Pawtuxet河2010年3月创纪录的洪水事件的案例研究
Soroush Kouhi1, M Reza Hashemi1,2, Rozita Kian1
1Department of Ocean Engineering University of Rhode Island South Kingstown Rhode Island USA.
概括
在Pawtuxet河流域的创纪录洪水被用水文模型研究. 河流结构影响洪水风险,未来的气候情景显示严重事件的可能性.
科学领域:
- 水文和环境工程 水文和环境工程
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 2010年3月,Pawtuxet河流域发生了创纪录的洪水,峰值流量排放的500年返回期.
- 现有的洪水风险评估工具往往忽略了诸如河流结构等关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 调查影响Pawtuxet河流域极端洪水事件的因素.
- 模拟和讨论洪水风险减轻策略.
- 在温暖气候场景下模拟未来的洪水风险.
主要方法:
- 开发水文和液压模型.
- 调查河流结构 (水库,水,桥梁) 和它们在洪水影响中的作用.
- 一个合成风事件 (风罗迪) 的模拟,两次登陆.
主要成果:
- 河流结构显著影响洪水影响,但往往被排除在当前风险评估之外.
- 模拟风罗迪的第二次登陆可能会产生相当于500年一次的洪水.
- 该研究强调了流域对极端天气事件的脆弱性.
结论:
- 这些发现强调了将河流结构纳入洪水风险评估的必要性.
- 为未来的洪水风险缓解提出了管理策略.
- 该方法可以为类似流域的洪水风险评估提供信息,特别是在不断变化的气候条件下.
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