一个规范性的运气理论

According to some social psychologists, people tend to overemphasize internal factors as explanations—or attributions—for the behavior of other people. They tend to assume that the behavior of another person is a trait of that person, and to underestimate the power of the situation on the behavior of others. They tend to fail to recognize when the behavior of another is due to situational variables, and thus to the person’s state. This erroneous assumption is...

Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 

Julian Rotter introduced the concept of locus of control, a cognitive factor that significantly influences personality development and learning. Locus of control refers to an individual's beliefs about the extent of control they have over events in their lives. According to Rotter, this belief system can be categorized into two types: internal and external locus of control.
Individuals with an internal locus of control believe that their personal efforts and decisions directly affect their...

Behavior is a product of both the situation (e.g., cultural influences, social roles, and the presence of bystanders) and of the person (e.g., personality characteristics). Subfields of psychology tend to focus on one influence or behavior over others. Situationism is the view that our behavior and actions are determined by our immediate environment and surroundings. In contrast, dispositionism holds that our behavior is determined by internal factors (Heider, 1958).

Incentive theory, or the "pull theory" of motivation, suggests that external rewards primarily drive behavior. Individuals are motivated to engage in activities when they anticipate a desirable outcome. This is why people often work hard for promotions or study intensively to achieve high grades. These incentives can be tangible, physical rewards such as money or promotions, or intangible, non-physical rewards like praise and social recognition.
The theory differentiates between...

While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?