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量化西尼罗河病毒的入侵风险:来自多载体和多宿主SEIR模型的见解

Martina Ferraguti^1,2,3, Afonso Dimas Martins⁴, Yael Artzy-Randrup²

¹Departamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, C/Américo Vespucio, 26, E-41092 Seville, Spain.

One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)

|November 29, 2023

概括

载体养偏好和传播率对西尼罗河病毒 (WNV) 侵袭风险的影响最大. 自然息地表现出最高的易感性,Culex pipiens pipiens作为主要载体,而不是杂交.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
媒介性疾病生态学媒介性疾病生态学
数学建模的数学建模

背景情况:

载体传播疾病的入侵受载体和宿主特征的影响.
Culex pipiens复杂的生态型和能力影响西尼罗河病毒 (WNV) 爆发风险.

研究的目的:

确定影响WNV入侵易受感染社区的关键生命史特征.
评估载体生态型,食偏好和传播率对整个息地和季节的WNV风险的影响.

主要方法:

开发了一个易受-暴露-感染-恢复 (SEIR) 模型,包含三个Culex pipiens生态型和两个宿主类型 (鸟类,人类).
在不同的息地和季节 (春季,夏季) 调查了WNV传播动态.
分析了食偏好和传播率对WNV入侵风险的影响.

主要成果:

媒介的食偏好和蚊子传播到鸟类的传播率是WNV入侵风险的最重要因素.
自然息地对WNV入侵的敏感性最高.
Culex pipiens pipiens是所有建模息地的主要载体;杂交物显示了最小的WNV传播影响.

结论:

虽然在任何研究的环境中都没有预测到WNV的入侵,但自然息地是最脆弱的.
结果表明,针对自然息地中的Culex pipiens pipiens,以加强监测和控制.
使用现场数据的流行病学建模可以优化公共卫生资源的分配,以管理载体传播疾病.

关键词:

流行病学流行病学食偏好食偏好数学的建模数学建模蚊子社区蚊子社区通过者是家属的.载体传播疾病载体传播疾病

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