在美国,公众对民主的支持在一代一代地下降
Christopher Claassen1, Pedro C Magalhães2
1Senior Lecturer, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Public opinion quarterly
|November 29, 2023
概括
年轻的美国人对民主的支持率下降,造成了显著的年龄差距. 这一趋势是由代际转变而不是个人老龄化驱动的,这表明美国民主依恋的未来挑战.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 美国政治 美国政治
背景情况:
- 在美国,公众对民主的支持是政治稳定的关键指标.
- 最近的观察表明,美国人对民主的依恋程度有所下降.
- 在民主支持方面出现了显著的年龄差异,年轻一代表现出较低的忠诚度.
研究的目的:
- 调查美国民主支持年龄差距的根本原因.
- 在塑造对民主态度时,区分生命周期效应和代际趋势.
- 根据观察到的人口结构模式,预测民主支持的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用年龄段和队列分析来研究民主支持的趋势.
- 分析了1995年至2019年期间进行的12项国家调查的数据.
- 评估了代际影响和生命周期影响对民主态度的相对贡献.
主要成果:
- 证实了支持民主的年龄差距很大,年轻的美国人对民主的支持较少.
- 这种年龄差距的主要驱动因素是民主支持的长期代际下降.
- 独立生命周期效应的证据 (即,随着年龄的增长,个体变得更加支持) 是最小的.
结论:
- 观察到的民主支持的下降在很大程度上归因于代际因素,而不是个人的老龄化.
- 没有平衡生命周期效应的缺失,为美国未来的民主忠诚带来了令人担忧的前景.
- 如果当前的世代趋势持续下去,美国未来的民主支持水平可能会更低.
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